Roaring twenties again or bubble bust?

So interesting to see all the numbers coming in. Record new job openings and yet millions more Americans unemployed then were so before the pandemic. I’m asking my friends (That’s you if you are reading this) for the best books and movies on the Roaring Twenties. Trying to figure out if we are in a boom or a bubble.

That’s the question I am most often asked and the 100 trillion dollar question, (approximate GDP of the world), every executive running a business, or a division, or even a department wants to know right now.

If a boom is on, they want to hire up, invest in infrastructure and build. If a bust is next, they want to lay-off and batten down the hatches.

The help wanted online index (HWOL) is up 142% from a year ago but can we really compare year over year at a time such as this?

Unemployment rate sits at 5.2%. Also, here’s a look at the US Unemployment numbers for the previous 18 years:

August 2021 5.2%

August 2020 14.2%

August 2019 7.2%

August 2018 7.4%

August 2017 8.6%

August 2016 9.7%

August 2015 10.3%

August 2014 12.0%

August 2013 13.6%

August 2012 14.7%

August 2011 16.2%

August 2010 16.7%

August 2009 16.8%

August 2008 10.9%

August 2007 8.4%

August 2006 8.4%

August 2005 8.9%

August 2004 9.5%

August 2003 10.2%

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